jayratkowski.com

http://www.packer-talk.com is where I’ll do my posting from now on.  Still some changes in progress, but everything is up and running.

I’ll be taking this one down within a week or so.

Well, mostly in an attempt to get some actual viewing on this site… I’m going through a renaming process.  I just registered the domain “packer-talk.com” and will be hosting this blog there within the next week.  The hyphen in the name does indeed mean there is already a “packertalk.com” which I know could be to my disadvantage, but that site is not very heavily used or visited, so I am not overly concerned.

Anyway, I’ll have essentially the same content.  I’ll just try to post more often and obviously will have more Packers related info.  I’ll change up the look a bit as well.

Not sure how I’ll handle routing the domains.  I’ll probably just put a link on jayratkowski.com to the new site as I don’t like auto-redirects that much.

After 3 straight losses, many Packers fans may be saying “what’s wrong?”  This team almost made the Super Bowl last year.  I’m sure many people will blame Rodgers.  Well, more specifically, the fact that he is NOT Brett Favre.  If Favre came back, this was supposed to be a championship team, right?  Well, I don’t know about that.

This time last year, Favre had 1500 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs.  Rodgers?  He has 1270 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs.  The big difference is the run game has actually produced more yards per game which has allowed Rodgers to throw less.

So what is it?  Two things really.  Sloppy play and no run defense.

Let’s look at penalties:
Last year through 5 weeks - 37 penalties, 269 yards.
This year through 5 weeks - 44 penalties, 419 yards.
How can you expect a team to compete with that many mistakes?  Going into week 5, the Packers were 3rd last in the NFL in penalties, dead last in yards penalized.  I’m sure with 9 for 97 yards today that number will just go up.  They are giving away 84 yards per game so far.  That’s 84 extra yards that either the offense has to move the ball or that the opposing offense gets for free.  There’s no excuse for so many foolish mistakes.

As for the defense… teams are just running wild.  The Packers were giving up the 4th most rushing yards in the NFL coming into week 5.  The Falcons put up 176 yards on them.  I’m sure they will be moving down a few spots when the final stats come out for the week.  The team is obviously going to miss Cullen Jenkins and the trade of Corey Williams is looking worse and worse every week as the middle of the line is constantly pushed backwards.  Last year at this point, the Packers were giving up just over 100 yards a game rushing.  Part of that is they were scoring a lot, but even if you score you still have to stop the other team.  This year, teams are finding that they can give up scores to the Packers and not change their offensive gameplan.  The defense is just getting pushed around, the linebackers look slow and injuries are building up.

If the mental mistakes can get cut in half, the team might be able to be competitive.  That seems to be asking a lot, however.  The announcers this week said McCarthy ran a training camp style practice to go back to basics this week.  I think he might have to go with a Pop-Warner style practice this coming week.

I like the website www.footballoutsiders.com (no, they didn’t pay me to say that).  They have some neat stats.  Here’s a few random things I found by browsing their database tonight.

• The Colts are 5th worst in the league with their interception rate, throwing one on about every eight drives.
• 39% of Green Bay’s drives do not result in a TD or even a 1st down.
• Denver is averaging 3 points for every time their offense touches the ball.
• St Louis is averaging less than 1.
• Arizona is turning the ball over once every 5 times they get the ball.

In other news:

Yards per attempt numbers can tell a lot about a QB.  Here’s some numbers:

• 6.53
• 5.83
• 5.71
• 5.68
• 4.64

A very good QB is usually around 8YPA or higher (unless you are in a Mike Martz offense, which throws all the numbers out of whack).  Those pitiful numbers above belonged to:

• Peyton Manning
• Marc Bulger
• Carson Palmer
• Matt Hasselbeck
• Derrick Anderson

After tonight, my fantasy starters will be:
Eli Manning
Greg Jennings
Eddie Royal
Clinton Portis
Chris Johnson
Anthony Fasano
Roy Williams

Williams and Portis are the only players I drafted.

He’s screwed up numerous times in the post-season… in game 3 I’ve already seen two bad outs with runners on (a strikeout and bad baserunning move).  He had the horrible double play that killed our chances in the 1st inning of game 2.  He struck out to end a potential rally at the end of game 1.  He’s batted .239 after the All-Star break including hitting .173 in September.  He also led the outfield with 5 errors.

I hate you, Corey Hart.

This time he’s going after the Patriots.  So now the Pats tampered with Moss by working him out before making trade to acquire the receiver.  Kind of odd that Davis didn’t bring this up last year or right after the season.  The reference to the Packers not wanting Moss when all the stories I remember said that Moss wouldn’t sign the contract the Packers wanted.  Always interesting news coming out of Raiderland!

ESPN.com - “Belichick denies Davis’ tampering allegation; Moss declines comment”

You can tell the network interest in the first game of the NLDS matchup between the Brewers and Phillies by the TV slot.  3PM EST on a Wednesday.  Thanks MLB.  The Brewers haven’t seen the playoffs in the entire lifespan of many of their fans and yet, those of us with jobs (you know, the ones most likely to buy tickets, apparel, etc) will likely not see the game.

Regardless, this should be a good matchup.  Two very young and talented teams.  Seems the Phillies have the edge of being more complete and having better pitchup through the roster, but who knows.  Anything can happen in baseball.  Just look at the Mets losing 2 of 3 to the Marlins.  The first two games should be good ones.  The Brewers are putting their prized young pitcher whose name nobody can properly pronnounce (hint: it’s NOT Gah-lard-oh) against the Reds’ ace who looks more like a frozen lemonade vendor than a pitcher.

Thankfully, the teams have a somewhat more reasonable 6PM EST start on Thursday.

There’s two sides to every story and this case is no different.  There’s Al Davis’ side, and then the rest of the world.

Seriously though, it’s not too hard to argue that there were some questionable things said by the Raiders’ boss man today.  All the public lies he referred to and the open desire to be fired aren’t very easy to be found by the outsider.  The new coach definitely seems like the “yes” man that Davis works best with.  That doesn’t really matter though, as we all knew this was coming.  Al Davis isn’t going to change and isn’t going to leave his post as long as he’s still breathing.  So we may as well just enjoy the theatrics, including the possible lawsuit over the refusal to pay Kiffin’s contract.  Hopefully Kiffin takes the high road and has a good talk with the commishioner about how to properly react.  It’s best if he just tries to get his money and moves on.  Let the next poor sap come in.  Forget the Raiders ever happened.

I’m going to focus on 1st down, this week vs. Tampa Bay.

1^st Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 10 at GB 42(14:51) R.Grant left end pushed ob at GB 48 for 6 yards
1st and 10 at TB 48(13:06) A.Rodgers sacked ob at TB 49 for -1 yards
1st and 10 at TB 33(11:51) R.Grant left tackle to TB 25 for 8 yards

1^st Quarter – Drive 2:
1st and 10 at GB 20(8:48) A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Driver to GB 28 for 8 yards
1st and 10 at GB 31(7:00) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to R.Grant.

1^st Quarter – Drive 3:
1st and 10 at GB 23(2:32) A.Rodgers pass short left to G.Jennings to GB 29 for 6 yards
1st and 10 at GB 35(1:10) R.Grant left end pushed ob at GB 38 for 3 yards PENALTY on GB-C.Clifton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 35 - No Play.

2^nd Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 10 at GB 11(12:03) R.Grant right end to GB 5 for -6 yards

2^nd Quarter – Drive 2:
1st and 10 at GB 22(6:36) R.Grant right guard to GB 21 for -1 yards
1st and 10 at GB 42(5:27) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 34 for -8 yards

2^nd Quarter – Drive 3: (about 1min left in half – not counting this drive)

3^rd Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 10 at GB 44(11:32) A.Rodgers pass short left to G.Jennings pushed ob at GB 45 for 1 yard

3^rd Quarter – Drive 2:
1st and 10 at GB 40(6:14) R.Grant right tackle to GB 38 for -2 yards (fumble – returned for TD)

3^rd Quarter – Drive 3:
1^st and 10 at GB 40 (5:48) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to D.Lee.

3^rd Quarter – Drive 4:
1st and 10 at TB 42(3:18) R.Grant up the middle to TB 42 for no gain (J.Haye).

4^th Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 15 at GB 15(9:40) R.Grant up the middle to GB 17 for 2 yards (G.Adams).

Last two possessions of the game were 2min drill.

15 normal 1st down plays in the game (ie - not 2min drill, not 1st and 20, etc).  8 plays were runs, 5 of them between the tackles.  Only two of those runs went over 2 yards.  Change things up, maybe?  I’ll have to look up some more stats when I have time, but the plays where they passed on 1st down, it was very obvious they were going to pass.

Both guys were amazing all year, but there is simply no topping what they did today.  Game winning home run for Braun and another complete game win for CC.  Longest post-season drout in major pro sports is over!