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I just wanted to post this in hopes of it actually turning out to be imaginary.  I mean, yesterday morning I left for work and it was in the upper 30’s and getting warmer.  Get home from dinner last night and winds are gusting over 60mph and the temps are dropping 10 degrees in an hour.  WTF…

Run-down feeling

McCarthy wants to beef up Packers’ ground game

So McCarthy thinks the Packers need to improve their ground game.  I’d agree.  If you want to look at just one big reason the rushing attack didn’t really get going in 2007, look at the performances in 2007:

• Week 1 vs Philly: 17 carries - 46 yards
• Week 3 vs San Diego: 13 carries - 42 yards
• Week 4 at Minny: 20 carries - 46 yards
• Week 5 vs Chicago: 21 carries - 77 yards (if you subtract a 44 yarder by Wynn)
• Week 6 vs Washington: 20 carries - 56 yards
• Week 12 at Detroit: 16 carries - 69 yards (if you subtract a 31 yarder by Grant)
• Week 13 at Dallas: 18 carries - 62 yards (if you subtract a 62 yarder by Grant)
• Week 15 at St Louis: 22 carries - 31 yards (if you subtract a 24 yarder by Grant)
• Week 16 at Chicago: 20 carries - 59 yards (if you subtract a 66 yarder by Grant)
• NFC Championship vs NY Giants: 14 carries - 28 yards (13 yards of that came on 1 run by Grant)

During those 10 games, if you subtract the biggest runs (some games have multiple big runs, but I only counted the longest for simplicity) the Packers averaged 18.1 carries for 51.6 yards.  That’s a terrible performance.  Their rushing success wasn’t much better in other games, but I’m simply pointing out the ones where they gave up on the running game (with less than 25 carries per game).  It’s obvious that their rather pathetic numbers are heavily inflated by a few long rushes in each game.  I don’t count big runs as carries because it’s more a result of that particular play going great for the offense and terrible for the defense, it’s not a good judge of offensive line performance overall.

If this hopes to improve, it might not be easy - check out a few of the Packers ‘08 opponents:

•  Chicago Bears - played the Packers tough against the run in both games
• Minnesota Vikings - #1 run defense in NFL
• Dallas Cowboys - #6 run defense in NFL
• Indianapolis Colts - #3 total defense in NFL
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - #2 total defense in NFL
• Seattle Seahawks - #12 run defense in NFL
• Jacksonville Jaguars - #11 run defense in NFL
• Tennessee Titans - #5 run defense in NFL

Really, the only “bad” defensive units they play all season are in 5 games: Detroit (twice), New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston.  Chicago would be in there, but they always take it to the Packers.

Aside from a major offseason move to improve the o-line, and a change in philosophy by McCarthy; there’s no way the running game is improving.  In fact, I think it’s highly likely the Packers will drop off next year. 

During the regular season, the Packers were 28th in the league with a pathetic 24.2 rushing attempts per game.  Even so, this stat is somewhat inflated by 3 “big” games against New York, Minnesota and Oakland where they had 29, 29 and 36 attempts respectively.  Take these games out of the mix and the average drops down to 22.6 attempts/game.  With such a half-hearted dedication to the run, how can the team ever expect to improve? 

Looks like since the last time I posted, the Pats went 16-0, the fantasy season wrapped up (finished 1st in one league, 4th in another, tanked it for last in another), Brett Favre was mentioned in MVP voting (2% of the vote is his best in a long time), the wild card weekend finished up and the 49ers destroyed any hope of winning in the next 2 or so years.

Few things on my mind today, first is the 49ers.  I’m sure plenty of people have already said how bad the Martz hiring seems.  Alex Smith has a questionable arm and decision making ability.  The offensive line can’t pass protect.  None of the receivers run great routes.  They should be a smash-mouth running team with Frank Gore getting close to 400 carries.  So instead, we throw Martz in, who will try to make Alex Smith take the most 7+ step drops in the league and air it out to receivers who are probably giving up on routes (but the ball will be under/over thrown anyway) and that young defensive is going to spend way too much time out on the field because of it.  I think this is a desperation move by Nolan.  He must be in the spot where he feels he has to make a huge splash to save his job.  Now, instead of the head coach getting fired, he can blame the woes on Martz and fire the offensive coordinator (and Martz can be what, the 7th offensive coordinator in the past 7 seasons?).

Some good divisional games this weekend.  The two teams I care most about are playing some decent matchups.  I think things don’t look great for the Packers.  Seattle is going to look for interceptions and Favre is going to throw them.  Seattle has 4 wideouts that could all be #1 or #2 guys and the Packers have no reliable depth at corner, Al Harris is shaky on deep routes and their safeties are out of position way too often.  Even if the Packers get a good pass-rush going, Hasselbeck can just keep making quick throws to underneath guys all day.  It will be the same kind of attack the Packers used in the first few weeks.  If it was anyone but Seattle coming to town, I could see Green Bay moving on.  I’d almost put them as the underdog here.  Maybe call it even given home field advantage.

As for New England, they will be tested a bit on defense with the running game that the Jaguars have, but Garrard is no threat in my mind.  Plus, Jacksonville doesn’t have a great pass defense.  They allow about a 60% completion rate and a lot of yards in the air.  None of their corners can cover all that great.  Unless they do something really different to pressure Brady and keep it up for four quarters, I don’t see them being too big a threat.

That’s all I’ve got for now.  Go Pats!