Archive for October, 2008
Can the Packers beat the Titans?
The Titans do two things really well; they run the ball and play lights out defense. That seems like trouble for the Packers as the offense is somewhat limited and they absolutely cannot stop the run.
So what can the Packers do to go after the Titans? Here’s some thoughts:
On Offense: The Titans play the ever popular cover 2 defense. The biggest challenge when facing their defense is fighting off the defensive line. The linemen have a single gap assignment and can really get up field fast. Whatever openings are left by the linemen, the linebackers quickly fill up. Because of this, running against the Titans is not easy. However, because they are so agressive going upfield, they can miss on some delays and draws. That’s assuming, of course, that Haynesworth doesn’t meet the running back at the handoff. While they aren’t an overly fast line, they can be suseptible to some of the same attacks used on fast linemen. You’ll see teams running against Tennesee being patient and looking for a defensive lineman to push far into the backfield and use the space they occupied as a running lane. That’s a risky proposition, but can work if you have a quick and decisive back (which Grant has not been this year). Regardless, this isn’t a team that is going to sit back and watch what you’re doing. They are very aggressive and if you’re going to run, you have to try and take advantage of that.
Through the air, if you can get a pass off there is hope. As with other cover 2 teams, there are holes deep over the middle and behind the corners by the sideline. There’s no exception with the Titans. They will also play man coverage, which would hopefully favor the Packers as they face it all week in practice. The biggest problem for the Packers will be protecting Rodgers from the inside pass rush, as the Titans can really push people around in the middle. Watching them play the Colts, the only time Manning was able to get any sort of advantage was on play action (or by simply throwing on running downs). The Titans’ linebackers look very aggressive to stop the run. On numerous plays (including the first Dallas Clark TD), the linebackers, all of them, froze or took a good couple steps toward the line to play the run. Once they recovered and realized the play was a pass, enough time had gone by that Manning had open receivers over the middle behind the linebackers. I’m not sure the Packers can do the same, especially without a great receiving weapon at tight end, but they will need to try.
On Defense:
The Packers really need to figure out how to stop the run. Tennessee has a very good offensive line and Green Bay will not beat them rushing four linemen. They’ll need to stack the box, maybe take after Indy and play four linebackers. That tactic could work, as the Titans wide receivers are definitely overmatched by Green Bay’s secondary. The tight end spot for the Titans is going to be key. Both tight ends (Cumpler and Scaife) can get downfield and they both catch a lot of passes. Green Bay will probably have to play Chillar on one guy and bring Collins up to cover another. Any of the other linebackers will likely get abused in the passing game. It’s definitely a good time to get some healthly defensive linemen back, as the Titans will abuse Green Bay at the line of scrimmage. This could easily be another game like the one against Dallas, where at the line the Packers just looked undersized and overmatched.
Brewers to make a “serious” offer for CC Sabathia
I know, I know, more Brewers talk. However, this is a big deal. I figured the Brewers could make a competitive offer, but still lose out by a good $10m, but this gives a bit of hope.
Here Come the Colts!
Today, we’re going to get a battle of two teams we just don’t know what to make of. The Colts have struggled out of the gate, thanks to a bad run defense, patchwork offensive line and an injured Peyton Manning. Last week, the Colts blew out the regular pretenders in the Baltimore Ravens and everyone is convinced they are ready to take over the AFC. I’m not so sure, but I still think they could win today.
The one good thing the Packers could have going for them today is their run defense may get a rest. Joseph Addai is out and the Colts will probably have to be careful with Rhodes as they can’t risk another running back injury. The Packers also have one of the better pass defenses in the league (not necessarily due to their terrible run defense). They are 2nd best in the league in allowing only a 52.1% completion rate. They are also 7th in the league with only allowing 178.8 passing yards per game. I’m not willing to put that completely on the run defense either, as the Packers have allowed the 12th most pass attempts in the league. The only thing working against these stats is that the Packers haven’t faced much in the way of passing offenses. Obviously the Cowboys are top notch, but the Vikings, Lions, Bucs, Falcons and Seahawks don’t have much to offer in the passing attack. They will definitely be tested today, especially the #2 and 3 corners who will have to take on Harrison or Wayne (whoever Woodson isn’t covering) and Anthony Gonzalez.
This could be a great week to get Ryan Grant going, as the Colts have a terrible run defense themselves. However, if the Colts put up early points (I could see them throwing 10 on us in the blink of an eye), it could force Aaron Rodgers to take over the bulk of the offense. That could be bad, as Rodgers hasn’t shown he can handle times when the team has to pass. If the Packers can score first or at least stop the Colts from getting early touchdowns, this could be a competitive game. I’m still not sold on the Colts being an elite team after beating the Ravens, barely getting by the Vikings and being handed the miracle win over the Texans. I think the Colts are more beatable this year than they have been in the last 5 seasons. Hopefully the Packers will come in believing that.
Sveum Out - Melvin Back
Brewer’s interim manager Dale Sveum is officially out of the running for the Brewer’s 2009 manager position. Seems Jim Skaalen, the hitting coach, is also out. I guess his method of “swing as hard as you can every pitch” wasn’t working. Meanwhile, GM Doug Melvin has signed a 3-year extension.
Now Melvin has to find an experienced manager who can get this team playing up to full potential and find ways to win games on defense and base hits; something that cost a lot of wins this year. Right now all signs are pointing to former Arizona manager Bob Brenly as the front-runner.
Favre tells Romo to play, and he listens
So after breaking his hand, things did not look good for Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Suddenly, news comes out that Brett Favre called Romo up and suggested he tried playing with the fracture. Seemed like a silly story to fill the news wire, but maybe it had an impact afterall. Now the word is that Romo is telling the coaches he wants to play. No word on if he’ll be allowed to start or play at all, as he is obviously risking a lot further damage to the hand.
As with many things, there is really two ways this could go. The likely result is that Romo will attempt to play, struggle and be in horrible pain. Brad Johnson will have to relieve the QB, people will criticize Romo and the coaches for not letting the hand rest. Romo will still end up missing 4 weeks and the Cowboys will have to fight for a wild card spot. The other scenario is that Romo plays, struggles but stays in the game. The Cowboys keep winning, the receivers step up, they actually run the ball. The toughness of the QB changes the entire attitude of the team and they go on to actually win a playoff game (maybe several).
No deadline deals - no surprise
As expected, the trading deadline came and went with no moves for the Packers. In fact, the Roy Williams trade is really the only one in the NFL worth noting.
Somehow, the Packers got thrown in with the Tony Gonzales rumors… I don’t understand how that could possibly make sense. The Packers could certainly benefit from an upgrade at tight end, but with Finley hopefully developing and Lee being a good enough starter, why give up a 2nd round pick (or multiple picks) for a guy now? Plus, the offensive line and the entire defense have so many holes that it seems tight end is probably about the least of their problems (along with receiver and QB).
In other news, with week 6 coming and going, Justin Harrell is off the PUP list. It sounds like the team is going to bring Harrell in for practices right away, so the team will have 3 weeks to decide whether to active the injury-prone tackle. While the defensive line could really use some help, I just can’t get excited about Harrell. He hasn’t shown he can stay healthy his entire college and pro career, so forgive me for not being too hopeful.
Despite win, Packers still need help
Yes, Aaron Rodgers looked great… but the team still showed no sign of improvement other than the ability to stick with the run. The Packers actually surprised me, running 39 times (for only 113 yards, 2.9 avg). So even though they finally kept running the ball, they really didn’t go anywhere. They also did no better stopping the run, giving up 4.9 per carry. They also have Ryan Pickett getting an MRI today on his tricept… we’ll hopefully get news on that shortly.
New Site Live
http://www.packer-talk.com is where I’ll do my posting from now on. Still some changes in progress, but everything is up and running.
I’ll be taking this one down within a week or so.
NFL Notes - Week 6
Adam “Pacman” Jones is really on the verge of some major trouble. The police recently confirmed he was involved in a fight at a Dallas hotel with his Cowboys assigned security guard. No charges are being filed, no arrests were made. Very close call for Jones. He has to know that if his name goes on one police report, his NFL career is immediately over. If this kid wants to keep playing football, this is not the way to do it.
Al Davis could be getting himself and the Raiders in trouble for his recent public claim of tampering by the New England Patriots. Davis said the Pats tampered and brought Moss in for an early workout before trading for him back in April 2007. The NFL said they may give a large fine and potentiall dock one or more draft picks. Basically, the league is saying Davis needs to shut his mouth and file his grievences properly and in a timely manner.
Jets safety Eric Smith will be serving a one game suspension after losing his appeal over the hit on Anquan Boldin. Yesterday afternoon on Sirius NFL Radio, Smith stated his claim and said he was going to knock the ball loose and prevent a TD, and was looking to hit Boldin right in the chest. The corner hit Boldin from behind, which basically knocked the receiver into the helmet-helmet collision. If you watch the video below, you can see that Boldin clearly was hit from behind and it does indeed look like Smith was going in for a chest high hit. However, the severity of the injury and the fact that Smith looks like he was leading with his helmet is probably what the NFL is going on. It’s legal to hit a defenseless player (IE - receiver in the air), but helmet to helmet while defenseless is going to get you a fine.
In other news, my fantasy team is down to only 2 players I drafted. Clinton Portis and Braylon Edwards. I just traded Tomlinson and Earnest Graham for Eli Manning, Greg Jennings and Santonio Homles. Got my 2nd win with all three new starters in the lineup last week. Hopefully things are looking up.
McCarthy’s approval rating takes big dive with loss
If you haven’t seen, ESPN.com lets fans vote on the job their coach is doing. Mike McCarthy received a 32% approval rating for week 5. Not good, but well deserved. The bad thing, is the logic many fans and reporters are using for the poor performance of the Packers. Whenever I read articles about the team, the “F” word always comes up. So many people seem to think that Brett would do a better job run blocking. They feel he would stuff the middle of the line on defense or get penetration on the end. Apparently Favre would do a far better job covering the tight end or stopping a running back from turning the corner. Favre would also be able to punt more consistently and get flagged less often for holding.
Blame Mike for not putting a well prepared team on the field. Blame Thompson for not filling the roster with quality depth on both lines. Don’t expect that Favre would fix any of the problems we are seeing right now.