jayratkowski.com

If you haven’t seen, ESPN.com lets fans vote on the job their coach is doing. Mike McCarthy received a 32% approval rating for week 5.  Not good, but well deserved.  The bad thing, is the logic many fans and reporters are using for the poor performance of the Packers.  Whenever I read articles about the team, the “F” word always comes up.  So many people seem to think that Brett would do a better job run blocking.  They feel he would stuff the middle of the line on defense or get penetration on the end.  Apparently Favre would do a far better job covering the tight end or stopping a running back from turning the corner.  Favre would also be able to punt more consistently and get flagged less often for holding.

Blame Mike for not putting a well prepared team on the field.  Blame Thompson for not filling the roster with quality depth on both lines.  Don’t expect that Favre would fix any of the problems we are seeing right now.

After 3 straight losses, many Packers fans may be saying “what’s wrong?”  This team almost made the Super Bowl last year.  I’m sure many people will blame Rodgers.  Well, more specifically, the fact that he is NOT Brett Favre.  If Favre came back, this was supposed to be a championship team, right?  Well, I don’t know about that.

This time last year, Favre had 1500 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs.  Rodgers?  He has 1270 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs.  The big difference is the run game has actually produced more yards per game which has allowed Rodgers to throw less.

So what is it?  Two things really.  Sloppy play and no run defense.

Let’s look at penalties:
Last year through 5 weeks - 37 penalties, 269 yards.
This year through 5 weeks - 44 penalties, 419 yards.
How can you expect a team to compete with that many mistakes?  Going into week 5, the Packers were 3rd last in the NFL in penalties, dead last in yards penalized.  I’m sure with 9 for 97 yards today that number will just go up.  They are giving away 84 yards per game so far.  That’s 84 extra yards that either the offense has to move the ball or that the opposing offense gets for free.  There’s no excuse for so many foolish mistakes.

As for the defense… teams are just running wild.  The Packers were giving up the 4th most rushing yards in the NFL coming into week 5.  The Falcons put up 176 yards on them.  I’m sure they will be moving down a few spots when the final stats come out for the week.  The team is obviously going to miss Cullen Jenkins and the trade of Corey Williams is looking worse and worse every week as the middle of the line is constantly pushed backwards.  Last year at this point, the Packers were giving up just over 100 yards a game rushing.  Part of that is they were scoring a lot, but even if you score you still have to stop the other team.  This year, teams are finding that they can give up scores to the Packers and not change their offensive gameplan.  The defense is just getting pushed around, the linebackers look slow and injuries are building up.

If the mental mistakes can get cut in half, the team might be able to be competitive.  That seems to be asking a lot, however.  The announcers this week said McCarthy ran a training camp style practice to go back to basics this week.  I think he might have to go with a Pop-Warner style practice this coming week.

Run-down feeling

McCarthy wants to beef up Packers’ ground game

So McCarthy thinks the Packers need to improve their ground game.  I’d agree.  If you want to look at just one big reason the rushing attack didn’t really get going in 2007, look at the performances in 2007:

• Week 1 vs Philly: 17 carries - 46 yards
• Week 3 vs San Diego: 13 carries - 42 yards
• Week 4 at Minny: 20 carries - 46 yards
• Week 5 vs Chicago: 21 carries - 77 yards (if you subtract a 44 yarder by Wynn)
• Week 6 vs Washington: 20 carries - 56 yards
• Week 12 at Detroit: 16 carries - 69 yards (if you subtract a 31 yarder by Grant)
• Week 13 at Dallas: 18 carries - 62 yards (if you subtract a 62 yarder by Grant)
• Week 15 at St Louis: 22 carries - 31 yards (if you subtract a 24 yarder by Grant)
• Week 16 at Chicago: 20 carries - 59 yards (if you subtract a 66 yarder by Grant)
• NFC Championship vs NY Giants: 14 carries - 28 yards (13 yards of that came on 1 run by Grant)

During those 10 games, if you subtract the biggest runs (some games have multiple big runs, but I only counted the longest for simplicity) the Packers averaged 18.1 carries for 51.6 yards.  That’s a terrible performance.  Their rushing success wasn’t much better in other games, but I’m simply pointing out the ones where they gave up on the running game (with less than 25 carries per game).  It’s obvious that their rather pathetic numbers are heavily inflated by a few long rushes in each game.  I don’t count big runs as carries because it’s more a result of that particular play going great for the offense and terrible for the defense, it’s not a good judge of offensive line performance overall.

If this hopes to improve, it might not be easy - check out a few of the Packers ‘08 opponents:

•  Chicago Bears - played the Packers tough against the run in both games
• Minnesota Vikings - #1 run defense in NFL
• Dallas Cowboys - #6 run defense in NFL
• Indianapolis Colts - #3 total defense in NFL
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - #2 total defense in NFL
• Seattle Seahawks - #12 run defense in NFL
• Jacksonville Jaguars - #11 run defense in NFL
• Tennessee Titans - #5 run defense in NFL

Really, the only “bad” defensive units they play all season are in 5 games: Detroit (twice), New Orleans, Atlanta, Houston.  Chicago would be in there, but they always take it to the Packers.

Aside from a major offseason move to improve the o-line, and a change in philosophy by McCarthy; there’s no way the running game is improving.  In fact, I think it’s highly likely the Packers will drop off next year. 

During the regular season, the Packers were 28th in the league with a pathetic 24.2 rushing attempts per game.  Even so, this stat is somewhat inflated by 3 “big” games against New York, Minnesota and Oakland where they had 29, 29 and 36 attempts respectively.  Take these games out of the mix and the average drops down to 22.6 attempts/game.  With such a half-hearted dedication to the run, how can the team ever expect to improve?