The Packers have seen all they need to see from their new starting quarterback. And going into the weekend, they decided to pull the trigger and make a deal that will keep Rodgers in Green Bay for the better part of his career. Rodgers signed the deal Friday morning that makes him among the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. The new contract will put Rodger’s yearly salary above all quarterbacks but Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Matt Ryan and Tony Romo. Romo’s deal beats Rodgers’ by about $5m total.
According to NFL.com, the deal is worth $65 million over 6 years and comes with $20 million in guarantees. The good part about the deal is the Packers got Aaron sigend in time to count the deal against the ’08 cap (they had just a hair under $20 million to spare).
The deal is of course getting some criticism from fans and the media, mostly due to the struggles of Ryan Grant after getting his big payday. While there is some merit to the failures of Grant this season, one can only wonder what his performance would be like had he attended training camp and if he didn’t regularly have offensive linemen thrown into him in the backfield. In the end, you can’t compare this to Grant’s deal. I think Grant was somewhat of a desperation move after the Packers thought of the possibility of not only being without one of their best offensive players of ’07 in the post-Favre era, but also the idea of having Brandon Jackson fumbling his way through the starting job is not very appealing.
Congrats to Rodgers and the Packers. So far, at least in some sense, you could say Rodgers has earned it by being a good teammate, being patient while Favre was doing his thing and performing well when given the chance. Now it’s time for Rodgers to start paying the Packers back with some wins.
The Titans do two things really well; they run the ball and play lights out defense. That seems like trouble for the Packers as the offense is somewhat limited and they absolutely cannot stop the run.
So what can the Packers do to go after the Titans? Here’s some thoughts:
On Offense: The Titans play the ever popular cover 2 defense. The biggest challenge when facing their defense is fighting off the defensive line. The linemen have a single gap assignment and can really get up field fast. Whatever openings are left by the linemen, the linebackers quickly fill up. Because of this, running against the Titans is not easy. However, because they are so agressive going upfield, they can miss on some delays and draws. That’s assuming, of course, that Haynesworth doesn’t meet the running back at the handoff. While they aren’t an overly fast line, they can be suseptible to some of the same attacks used on fast linemen. You’ll see teams running against Tennesee being patient and looking for a defensive lineman to push far into the backfield and use the space they occupied as a running lane. That’s a risky proposition, but can work if you have a quick and decisive back (which Grant has not been this year). Regardless, this isn’t a team that is going to sit back and watch what you’re doing. They are very aggressive and if you’re going to run, you have to try and take advantage of that.
Through the air, if you can get a pass off there is hope. As with other cover 2 teams, there are holes deep over the middle and behind the corners by the sideline. There’s no exception with the Titans. They will also play man coverage, which would hopefully favor the Packers as they face it all week in practice. The biggest problem for the Packers will be protecting Rodgers from the inside pass rush, as the Titans can really push people around in the middle. Watching them play the Colts, the only time Manning was able to get any sort of advantage was on play action (or by simply throwing on running downs). The Titans’ linebackers look very aggressive to stop the run. On numerous plays (including the first Dallas Clark TD), the linebackers, all of them, froze or took a good couple steps toward the line to play the run. Once they recovered and realized the play was a pass, enough time had gone by that Manning had open receivers over the middle behind the linebackers. I’m not sure the Packers can do the same, especially without a great receiving weapon at tight end, but they will need to try.
On Defense:
The Packers really need to figure out how to stop the run. Tennessee has a very good offensive line and Green Bay will not beat them rushing four linemen. They’ll need to stack the box, maybe take after Indy and play four linebackers. That tactic could work, as the Titans wide receivers are definitely overmatched by Green Bay’s secondary. The tight end spot for the Titans is going to be key. Both tight ends (Cumpler and Scaife) can get downfield and they both catch a lot of passes. Green Bay will probably have to play Chillar on one guy and bring Collins up to cover another. Any of the other linebackers will likely get abused in the passing game. It’s definitely a good time to get some healthly defensive linemen back, as the Titans will abuse Green Bay at the line of scrimmage. This could easily be another game like the one against Dallas, where at the line the Packers just looked undersized and overmatched.
Today, we’re going to get a battle of two teams we just don’t know what to make of. The Colts have struggled out of the gate, thanks to a bad run defense, patchwork offensive line and an injured Peyton Manning. Last week, the Colts blew out the regular pretenders in the Baltimore Ravens and everyone is convinced they are ready to take over the AFC. I’m not so sure, but I still think they could win today.
The one good thing the Packers could have going for them today is their run defense may get a rest. Joseph Addai is out and the Colts will probably have to be careful with Rhodes as they can’t risk another running back injury. The Packers also have one of the better pass defenses in the league (not necessarily due to their terrible run defense). They are 2nd best in the league in allowing only a 52.1% completion rate. They are also 7th in the league with only allowing 178.8 passing yards per game. I’m not willing to put that completely on the run defense either, as the Packers have allowed the 12th most pass attempts in the league. The only thing working against these stats is that the Packers haven’t faced much in the way of passing offenses. Obviously the Cowboys are top notch, but the Vikings, Lions, Bucs, Falcons and Seahawks don’t have much to offer in the passing attack. They will definitely be tested today, especially the #2 and 3 corners who will have to take on Harrison or Wayne (whoever Woodson isn’t covering) and Anthony Gonzalez.
This could be a great week to get Ryan Grant going, as the Colts have a terrible run defense themselves. However, if the Colts put up early points (I could see them throwing 10 on us in the blink of an eye), it could force Aaron Rodgers to take over the bulk of the offense. That could be bad, as Rodgers hasn’t shown he can handle times when the team has to pass. If the Packers can score first or at least stop the Colts from getting early touchdowns, this could be a competitive game. I’m still not sold on the Colts being an elite team after beating the Ravens, barely getting by the Vikings and being handed the miracle win over the Texans. I think the Colts are more beatable this year than they have been in the last 5 seasons. Hopefully the Packers will come in believing that.
As expected, the trading deadline came and went with no moves for the Packers. In fact, the Roy Williams trade is really the only one in the NFL worth noting.
Somehow, the Packers got thrown in with the Tony Gonzales rumors… I don’t understand how that could possibly make sense. The Packers could certainly benefit from an upgrade at tight end, but with Finley hopefully developing and Lee being a good enough starter, why give up a 2nd round pick (or multiple picks) for a guy now? Plus, the offensive line and the entire defense have so many holes that it seems tight end is probably about the least of their problems (along with receiver and QB).
In other news, with week 6 coming and going, Justin Harrell is off the PUP list. It sounds like the team is going to bring Harrell in for practices right away, so the team will have 3 weeks to decide whether to active the injury-prone tackle. While the defensive line could really use some help, I just can’t get excited about Harrell. He hasn’t shown he can stay healthy his entire college and pro career, so forgive me for not being too hopeful.
Adam “Pacman” Jones is really on the verge of some major trouble. The police recently confirmed he was involved in a fight at a Dallas hotel with his Cowboys assigned security guard. No charges are being filed, no arrests were made. Very close call for Jones. He has to know that if his name goes on one police report, his NFL career is immediately over. If this kid wants to keep playing football, this is not the way to do it.
Al Davis could be getting himself and the Raiders in trouble for his recent public claim of tampering by the New England Patriots. Davis said the Pats tampered and brought Moss in for an early workout before trading for him back in April 2007. The NFL said they may give a large fine and potentiall dock one or more draft picks. Basically, the league is saying Davis needs to shut his mouth and file his grievences properly and in a timely manner.
Jets safety Eric Smith will be serving a one game suspension after losing his appeal over the hit on Anquan Boldin. Yesterday afternoon on Sirius NFL Radio, Smith stated his claim and said he was going to knock the ball loose and prevent a TD, and was looking to hit Boldin right in the chest. The corner hit Boldin from behind, which basically knocked the receiver into the helmet-helmet collision. If you watch the video below, you can see that Boldin clearly was hit from behind and it does indeed look like Smith was going in for a chest high hit. However, the severity of the injury and the fact that Smith looks like he was leading with his helmet is probably what the NFL is going on. It’s legal to hit a defenseless player (IE – receiver in the air), but helmet to helmet while defenseless is going to get you a fine.
In other news, my fantasy team is down to only 2 players I drafted. Clinton Portis and Braylon Edwards. I just traded Tomlinson and Earnest Graham for Eli Manning, Greg Jennings and Santonio Homles. Got my 2nd win with all three new starters in the lineup last week. Hopefully things are looking up.
After 3 straight losses, many Packers fans may be saying “what’s wrong?” This team almost made the Super Bowl last year. I’m sure many people will blame Rodgers. Well, more specifically, the fact that he is NOT Brett Favre. If Favre came back, this was supposed to be a championship team, right? Well, I don’t know about that.
This time last year, Favre had 1500 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs. Rodgers? He has 1270 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs. The big difference is the run game has actually produced more yards per game which has allowed Rodgers to throw less.
So what is it? Two things really. Sloppy play and no run defense.
Let’s look at penalties:
Last year through 5 weeks – 37 penalties, 269 yards.
This year through 5 weeks – 44 penalties, 419 yards.
How can you expect a team to compete with that many mistakes? Going into week 5, the Packers were 3rd last in the NFL in penalties, dead last in yards penalized. I’m sure with 9 for 97 yards today that number will just go up. They are giving away 84 yards per game so far. That’s 84 extra yards that either the offense has to move the ball or that the opposing offense gets for free. There’s no excuse for so many foolish mistakes.
As for the defense… teams are just running wild. The Packers were giving up the 4th most rushing yards in the NFL coming into week 5. The Falcons put up 176 yards on them. I’m sure they will be moving down a few spots when the final stats come out for the week. The team is obviously going to miss Cullen Jenkins and the trade of Corey Williams is looking worse and worse every week as the middle of the line is constantly pushed backwards. Last year at this point, the Packers were giving up just over 100 yards a game rushing. Part of that is they were scoring a lot, but even if you score you still have to stop the other team. This year, teams are finding that they can give up scores to the Packers and not change their offensive gameplan. The defense is just getting pushed around, the linebackers look slow and injuries are building up.
If the mental mistakes can get cut in half, the team might be able to be competitive. That seems to be asking a lot, however. The announcers this week said McCarthy ran a training camp style practice to go back to basics this week. I think he might have to go with a Pop-Warner style practice this coming week.
I like the website www.footballoutsiders.com (no, they didn’t pay me to say that). They have some neat stats. Here’s a few random things I found by browsing their database tonight.
- The Colts are 5th worst in the league with their interception rate, throwing one on about every eight drives.
- 39% of Green Bay’s drives do not result in a TD or even a 1st down.
- Denver is averaging 3 points for every time their offense touches the ball.
- St Louis is averaging less than 1.
- Arizona is turning the ball over once every 5 times they get the ball.
In other news:
Yards per attempt numbers can tell a lot about a QB. Here’s some numbers:
- 6.53
- 5.83
- 5.71
- 5.68
- 4.64
A very good QB is usually around 8YPA or higher (unless you are in a Mike Martz offense, which throws all the numbers out of whack). Those pitiful numbers above belonged to:
- Peyton Manning
- Marc Bulger
- Carson Palmer
- Matt Hasselbeck
- Derrick Anderson
After tonight, my fantasy starters will be:
Eli Manning
Greg Jennings
Eddie Royal
Clinton Portis
Chris Johnson
Anthony Fasano
Roy Williams
Williams and Portis are the only players I drafted.
There’s two sides to every story and this case is no different. There’s Al Davis’ side, and then the rest of the world.
Seriously though, it’s not too hard to argue that there were some questionable things said by the Raiders’ boss man today. All the public lies he referred to and the open desire to be fired aren’t very easy to be found by the outsider. The new coach definitely seems like the “yes” man that Davis works best with. That doesn’t really matter though, as we all knew this was coming. Al Davis isn’t going to change and isn’t going to leave his post as long as he’s still breathing. So we may as well just enjoy the theatrics, including the possible lawsuit over the refusal to pay Kiffin’s contract. Hopefully Kiffin takes the high road and has a good talk with the commishioner about how to properly react. It’s best if he just tries to get his money and moves on. Let the next poor sap come in. Forget the Raiders ever happened.
I’m going to focus on 1st down, this week vs. Tampa Bay.
1st Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 10 at GB 42(14:51) R.Grant left end pushed ob at GB 48 for 6 yards
1st and 10 at TB 48(13:06) A.Rodgers sacked ob at TB 49 for -1 yards
1st and 10 at TB 33(11:51) R.Grant left tackle to TB 25 for 8 yards
1st Quarter – Drive 2:
1st and 10 at GB 20(8:48) A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Driver to GB 28 for 8 yards
1st and 10 at GB 31(7:00) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to R.Grant.
1st Quarter – Drive 3:
1st and 10 at GB 23(2:32) A.Rodgers pass short left to G.Jennings to GB 29 for 6 yards
1st and 10 at GB 35(1:10) R.Grant left end pushed ob at GB 38 for 3 yards PENALTY on GB-C.Clifton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 35 – No Play.
2nd Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 10 at GB 11(12:03) R.Grant right end to GB 5 for -6 yards
2nd Quarter – Drive 2:
1st and 10 at GB 22(6:36) R.Grant right guard to GB 21 for -1 yards
1st and 10 at GB 42(5:27) A.Rodgers sacked at GB 34 for -8 yards
2nd Quarter – Drive 3: (about 1min left in half – not counting this drive)
3rd Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 10 at GB 44(11:32) A.Rodgers pass short left to G.Jennings pushed ob at GB 45 for 1 yard
3rd Quarter – Drive 2:
1st and 10 at GB 40(6:14) R.Grant right tackle to GB 38 for -2 yards (fumble – returned for TD)
3rd Quarter – Drive 3:
1st and 10 at GB 40 (5:48) A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to D.Lee.
3rd Quarter – Drive 4:
1st and 10 at TB 42(3:18) R.Grant up the middle to TB 42 for no gain (J.Haye).
4th Quarter – Drive 1:
1st and 15 at GB 15(9:40) R.Grant up the middle to GB 17 for 2 yards (G.Adams).
Last two possessions of the game were 2min drill.
15 normal 1st down plays in the game (ie – not 2min drill, not 1st and 20, etc). 8 plays were runs, 5 of them between the tackles. Only two of those runs went over 2 yards. Change things up, maybe? I’ll have to look up some more stats when I have time, but the plays where they passed on 1st down, it was very obvious they were going to pass.
Yeah, I never posted anything for week 3. Forget that, because the Brewers have gotten it together and are tied for the wild card. I don’t know if they really deserve to make the playoffs at this point, but if they can keep winning I will gladly take it. Could be good things in the near future for the Brewers if they are able to make the post season, as Gallardo just got activated. If he can crack the starting lineup and Sheets makes it back, this could be a really good team in the playoffs. Let’s see if they can make it there first.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Disappointing start for both teams. Terrible quarterback play, no defense, no run game, nothing to get excited about at all. Well that’s all about to change, because one of these teams is getting a win this week! This is a perfect matchup for each of the struggling quarterbacks, as neither team will be playing anything resembling defense. For those saying this is the week for Brady Quinn, it’s not. The Browns have the Giants, Redskins, Jaguars and Ravens coming up. Not a stretch you want a first time starter to face. If Anderson continues to struggle, the week after the Ravens would be the time as they have the Broncos, Bills, Texans, Colts; much softer defenses to ease in the young guy.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay
One of the few times the battle of the bays has had much relevance as the two teams are fighting to stay atop their respective divisions. This will be another good test for Aaron Rodgers as Kiffin will no doubt throw a lot of different looks and blitz from all over the field. Not only will Rodgers have a tough task, but the run game will as well. The Packers have respectable running stats with 115 yards per game and 4.4 per carry, but as with last year that’s been offset by a few long runs. On defense, the backup corners really need to step up. The Packers have gone several years with virtually no depth at corner and now it may cost them as Al Harris is out at least several weeks if not longer. Tampa doesn’t have a great offense, but they do have a good coach and a vetern team that will exploit favorable matchups.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
The Steelers got murdered last week. They were slapped around like little bitches by the Eagles defense and it was embarrassing. This is a team that went from looking like the best in the AFC to just another pretender. Meanwhile, the Ravens have been solid on defense and are running well. They have managed to hide their young QB so far, which is huge for his future. After a game like they had last week, this is a spot where a good team has to make a statement. A pretender would go into this week against a team like the Ravens and get knocked out again. I don’t think the Steelers will do that. Their defense is too good, their running game is too good. I’m thinking the Steelers are going to take care of business against Baltimore.
I also need to quickly comment on the Lions situation. I guess I’ll get in line with the others who are not that excited for the team after firing Millen. Yes, Millen was terrible. Probably the worst GM in my lifetime. However, what is really going to come from this? The Lions haven’t been good for a really long time and that is not all Millen’s fault. Also, it seems pretty clear that the rest of the staff there is inept as well, but they are keeping people around! For the Lion’s to fire Millen now, they should have had a replacement lined up. If not, they should have done it in the offseason when they could get more people in for interviews. All this does is continue things as they are for the rest of the season.
